The Game of Time

In Bihar, time is once again proving to be the greatest game-changer. As the 2025 assembly elections draw near, the political atmosphere in the state has reached a boiling point—not just due to the usual pre-election hustle, but thanks to the recently passed Waqf Amendment Bill. This piece of legislation, rushed through Parliament during late-night sessions, has set off a chain reaction of debates, realignments, and fractures, positioning Bihar as the epicenter of a political showdown that rivals any cricket spectacle.

In a country where cricket often captures national attention, the rhetorical clash over the bill has been equally captivating. BJP leader Sudhanshu Trivedi and Congress MP Imran Pratapgarhi turned the Parliament into a battleground of words. Trivedi, known for his sharp wit and mastery of historical references, defended the bill with eloquence, earning applause from BJP and RSS supporters who hailed his performance as unmatched. Pratapgarhi, wielding Urdu poetry and biting sarcasm, countered with equal finesse.

Yet beyond the theatrics, the Waqf Amendment Bill has real and profound consequences— particularly in Bihar. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s decision to support the bill has sent ripples through the state’s political fabric. His move, backed by allies like Jitan Ram Manjhi and Chirag Paswan, ensured the bill’s smooth passage. However, it has also triggered dissent within his own party, the Janata Dal (United), and provided ammunition to the opposition.

Nitish Kumar, often described as a political magician for his ability to balance diverse voter bases— Muslims and Hindus alike—now faces one of the most critical tests of his career. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by Tejashwi Yadav, has accused him of betraying Bihar’s Muslims, branding him an "RSS-certified leader”.

This is not mere political rhetoric. Muslims make up about 17.7%of Bihar’s population, including a significant 12.9% who identify as Pasmanda (backward caste) Muslims—the very community the Waqf bill claims to protect. Historically, Nitish enjoyed considerable Muslim support, securing between 21% and 62% of Muslim votes between 2009 and 2015, even while allied with the BJP. However, in the 2020 elections, that support plummeted to just 5% for the NDA, while the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan captured 76%. With the Waqf Amendment Bill now polarizing voters further, Bihar’s traditionally caste-driven politics risks collapsing into a binary Hindu-Muslim contest—one that could redefine the state's electoral landscape.

The impact within JDU is already visible. Several Muslim leaders have broken ranks with Nitish. Figures like Afzal Abbas, chairman of Bihar’s Shia Waqf Board, and party members such as Mohammad Nawaz Malik, Mohammad Tabrez, and MLC Ghulam Ghaus have either resigned or voiced strong dissent. Ghaus, notably, questioned why the bill couldn’t be rolled back like the controversial farm laws, highlighting the growing unrest within the party.

The numbers illustrate the stakes: 29 assembly seats in Bihar have Muslim populations between 20 30%, seven seats between 30-40%, and 11 seats where Muslims constitute over 40%—decisive numbers that can make or break political fortunes. Nitish’s gamble could either alienate Muslim voters further or consolidate Hindu support in his favor, depending on how the narrative unfolds.

Meanwhile, the BJP is treading cautiously. It hopes to make inroads through welfare schemes like "Saugaat e Modi," which have been aggressively promoted in Bihar. Adding another layer of complexity is political strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, who has thrown his hat into the ring, aiming to disrupt the traditional RJD-Congress stronghold over Muslim votes.

The Waqf Amendment Bill promises greater transparency and better management, but in Bihar, it has transformed into a potent political symbol. Home Minister Amit Shah has defended the bill as a necessary reform, blaming Congress's earlier inaction, but in the heartland, the debate is less about governance and more about votes.

As one witty remark making rounds in Bihar puts it, "Abki baar, Bihar mein Waqf ki sarkar"—this t ime, the government could be decided by the Waqf issue. Whether Nitish Kumar’s move proves to be a masterstroke or a misstep remains to be seen. What’s certain is that as the 2025 elections approach, Bihar is witnessing one of its most unpredictable and high-stakes political contests yet.

In the end, time will tell who truly wins this riveting game.